SEA Tech and Startups in the Tariff Era
Six Months After “Liberation Day”
Welcome to the latest edition of The Ascent, presented by AVV. Coming to you from Ho Chi Minh City, this is your front-row seat to how the next-generation market of Vietnam is building global winners, one startup at a time.
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Let’s get into our Spotlight for the month: a look at how President Donald Trump’s tariffs have impacted Southeast Asian tech and startups six months since ‘Liberation Day.’
On April 2, the Trump administration shocked the global economy with its “Liberation Day” tariffs, levying rates of up to 50% on imports from nearly 60 countries and 10% on almost everyone else.
Six months later, the situation remains fluid and often confusing, with Trump announcing and reversing numerous other country- or sector-specific tariffs. One certainty, however, is that tariffs have changed some assumptions in the tech and startup sectors while reshaping supply chains, investment flows, and the competitive positioning of emerging innovation hubs.
Washington’s trade war began at a time of relative economic strength in the U.S., especially compared to China. America’s ‘Mag 7’ of tech giants absorbed the initial shock, and in fact, their stock performance continues to drive record highs for the S&P 500.
Inbound tech investment in Southeast Asia, on the other hand, had reason for concern. While the region, and especially Vietnam, emerged as a winner of Trump 1.0’s trade war with China, punishing tariff rates came as a shock this time around. Vietnam received one of the highest rates in the world, at 46%, instantly raising questions about the future of its export-oriented economy.
The underlying logic of tariffs, meanwhile, sits uneasily with how tech value is actually created. Raising duties can change the math of traditional manufacturing, but it does little to address the fundamentals of digital competition, including talent, data, intellectual property enforcement, and access to capital.
This means that software firms and AI companies are less directly exposed, but their customers in export-heavy sectors are hurting, constraining domestic demand.
The move bewildered observers in Vietnam, a country that the first Trump administration had actively encouraged manufacturers to move to from China. Beyond Vietnam, Washington diluted its leverage in the trade way by going too broad, attacking long-time allies such as Japan, South Korea, Canada, and the EU.
For tech, this meant U.S. startups saw higher input costs for semiconductors and networking gear. European partners in AI or cloud services encountered new friction. The cooperative networks that fuel global innovation were strained. For Southeast Asia, the impact was mixed: more investors looked to hedge through ASEAN, but fragmentation of alliances slowed cross-border capital and partnerships. Vietnamese startups hoping to attract European or Japanese strategic investors now face added caution.
This unpredictability remains the most damaging element of the trade war for all businesses, including tech startups and corporations. The above-mentioned reversals have made long-term planning almost impossible, especially with one of the most critical components of the tech world - semiconductors - caught square in the middle of U.S.-China tensions.
Few can confidently invest or resource plan when they don’t know whether next quarter’s inputs will carry a 50% duty, 0% duty, or something in between. U.S. cloud providers paused data center expansion in Asia, uncertain whether hardware will be competitively priced.
For the tech world, the unpredictability extends beyond tariffs. For example, recently, Trump announced that companies will have to pay US$100,000 per H-1B visa for foreign employees. These three-year visas are available to highly skilled international professionals. Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google have among the most employees on H-1B visas in the U.S., while some experts have warned that this fee could “kneecap” startups. The policy is being challenged in court, but it could end up being a net positive for Vietnam (and other developing markets) as entrepreneurs and students will have more incentive to return to or stay in their home country.
The broader policy ambiguity keeps the door open to multiple interpretations, allowing Vietnam to benefit from both supply chain relocations and digital partnerships. But it also creates fragility: a sudden pivot could impose new sector-specific tariffs that undercut growth overnight.
For founders and investors, the lesson is not to wait for stability but to adapt to volatility. Six months after “Liberation Day,” the real winners are those agile enough to treat disruption not as a threat, but as an opportunity.
Unrelated, but also worth mentioning: the FTSE Russell announced that it will reclassify Vietnam from a Frontier market to a Secondary Emerging Market in September 2026, assuming an interim review in March goes smoothly. Vietnam has been on the watchlist for this upgrade since 2018, and the announcement was greeted with much enthusiasm, though the hurdle of that review still needs to be cleared. The Vietnamese stock market has been among the best-performing in Asia this year, and the move to Secondary Emerging status is expected to bring in billions of dollars worth of inflows.
Vietnam Tech in the News
Dat Bike raises Series B round
Last month, Dat Bike announced that it raised a US$22 million Series B round, led by Japanese automotive parts supplier FCC, VC firm Rebright Partners, and Jungle Partners. The electric motorbike manufacturer has now raised US$47 million and aims to expand to Thailand in the next year. E-mobility companies are in the spotlight as both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have announced plans to phase out gas-powered motorbikes starting in 2026.
Semiconductor expansion
Marvell, the American semiconductor company, continues to expand its Marvell Vietnam subsidiary. The firm opened three new offices - two in Ho Chi Minh City and one in Da Nang - on September 30, while bringing its engineering workforce in the country to over 500. Vietnam is now Marvell’s third-largest R&D hub in the world, after the U.S. and India. In August, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called for the country to be capable of independently handling the full semiconductor supply chain - from design to fabrication and testing - by 2027.
NextTech Group raided
The Hanoi police recently raided the headquarters of NextTech Group, founded by Nguyen Hoa Binh, more commonly known as ‘Shark Binh’ due to his Shark Tank Vietnam fame. NextTech operates in fintech, e-commerce, and other fields, whereas the investigation is specifically related to AntEx, a cryptocurrency project in which Shark Binh invested US$2.5 million in 2021. At least one AntEx customer has accused the company of causing financial losses.
AVV in Action
AVV co-hosted an evening for LPs during SuperReturn Asia in Singapore, the leading annual GP/LP conference in Asia, along with Golden Gate Ventures and Silicon Valley Bank. The casual gathering, overlooking beautiful Marina Bay, allowed for lively discussions about the VC sector broadly. Thanks to all who joined, and to our co-hosts as well. See you next year!
GP Eddie Thai, meanwhile, participated in a couple of panels at SuperReturn Asia. In a panel on exits, he shared lessons learned from successes and failures in M&A and secondary transactions from Binh and Eddie’s past 10 years. Moderating a panel on competitive edge in value creation in sustainability-driven investing, he elicited discussion on portfolio construction, deal structuring, balancing LP expectations, and ecosystem development, particularly around energy and infrastructure.
GP Binh Tran hosted a conversation with Otohiko Kozutsumi, CCO and co-founder of AnyMind Group, at Tech in Asia AMPED in Ho Chi Minh City. The two discussed driving digital commerce growth and innovation in Southeast Asia.
What we’re reading:
Vietnam PM seeks new trade deals to counter US tariff impact
SE Asian venture investors preach patience, seek silver linings after scandal-hit year
See you next month!
The AVV team